Role of solar Rossby waves in causing space weather on intermediate time-scales
Mausumi Dikpati, HAO
Forecasting our weather was built on the recognition that global Rossby waves, interacting with mean east-west flow on the Earth’s atmosphere, produce jet streams, which are responsible for causing winter storms, and cold outbreaks that we experience in midlatitudes. Rossby waves arise in thin layers within fluid regions of stars and planets. These global wave‐like patterns occur due to the variation in Coriolis forces with latitude. It has recently been discovered that the Sun has Rossby waves too. Therefore, the Sun’s global magnetic fields and flows are also influenced by these global‐scale waves. But unlike the Earth’s Rossby waves, due to the presence of strong magnetic fields solar Rossby waves are magnetically modified. In this talk, I will demonstrate through model-simulations how solar Rossby waves, nonlinearly interacting with differential rotation and spot-producing magnetic fields, can cause the seasonal/sub-seasonal (6-18 months) variability in solar activity, which is, in turn, the origin of space weather on intermediate time-scales. Space weather occurring on a very short time-scale (hours-to-days) and on much longer time-scale (decadal-to-millennial) have been studied extensively, but there exists a gap, namely the occurrence of space weather on intermediate time-scale of a few weeks to several months. I will also demonstrate that combining observations with our model by data-assimilation procedure it is possible to forecast an upcoming space-weather season several months ahead of time.